First off, the GOP gubernatorial primary. SurveyUSA (7/29-31, likely voters, 5/16-18 in parens):
Kenny Hulshof: 45 (29)
Sarah Steelman: 33 (25)
Other: 8 (14)
Undecided: 15 (32)
(MoE: ±4.6%)
Looks like Hulshof almost has this one in the bag just a few days before the state’s August 5th primary. Now let’s take a look at the general election.
SurveyUSA (7/29-31, likely voters, 5/16-18 in parens):
Jay Nixon (D): 48 (57)
Kenny Hulshof (R): 42 (33)Jay Nixon (D): 50 (58)
Sarah Steelman (R): 41 (33)
(MoE: ±2.6%)
I fully expected this race to narrow, but that’s some big movement. This is one example of the benefits of a primary; with Steelman and Hulshof barnstorming the state and airing ads introducing themself to voters, they’ve built back some strength for Team Red. Other polls from Rasmussen and PPP earlier this month confirmed the race getting tighter. Nixon still has the edge, but it appears that it won’t be the cakewalk that some had predicted.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
UPDATE: Okay, here’s something important that I didn’t notice earlier. In SUSA’s May poll, the partisan sample was 30R-45D-19I, while this poll is 36R-38D-20I. Quite a big shift. Which sample is more reasonable? PPP’s most recent poll used a 34R-39D-28I sample, while Research 2000 used a 36R-40D-24I sample in their most recent poll.
Perhaps a 15-point sample advantage for Dems was pushing it.
I usually use opensecrets.org to find out fundraising data on congressional races, but apparently they don’t have info on Gubernatorial contests. Does anyone know of a website with that data?
I’d imagine that while the hard fought republican primary in MO has helped them in general election polls for the time being, it has to be draining their general election resources. Nixon is probably hoarding his money thus far.
It’s the biggest lead any candidate has of the four competitive governor races. Washington, North Carolina, and Indiana.